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Essential Polling

  • Essential PollingVoting at a polling booth in 2016

Has Joycegate hurt the Government?

This week’s Essential, conducted February 8-11 from a sample of 1,026, gave Labor a 54-46 lead, unchanged since last fortnight. Primary votes were 37% Labor (up one), 36% Coalition (up one), 10% Greens (steady), 6% One Nation (down two), and 4% Nick Xenophon Team (up one).

Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval was -3, up four points since January. Bill Shorten’s net approval was -13, also up four.

38% thought cutting company taxes would simply deliver business A$50 billion more in profits, and would not result in higher wages. 32% thought cutting company taxes would attract more investment, create jobs, and increase wages.

By 72-10, voters would approve of forcing businesses to pass on a proportion of tax cuts as pay rises to their workers.

By 58-25, voters thought the Adani coal mine would create jobs that Queensland badly needs. However, voters also thought it would undermine tourism jobs (53-22), divert renewable energy investment (51-25), and undermine action on climate change (52-26). Queenslanders were more likely to agree with the first statement and less likely to agree with the last three statements.

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A Queensland Galaxy poll, conducted February 7-8 from a sample of 860, gave the federal Coalition a 52-48 lead in Queensland, a one-point gain for the Coalition since August. Primary votes were 41% Coalition (up four), 32% Labor (steady), 10% Greens (up three), and 9% One Nation (down three).

The swing to federal Labor in this poll since the 2016 election is just two points, which is a disappointing result for the party.

Labor would not win many additional seats in Queensland if this poll was replicated at a federal election.

41% supported and 41% opposed the development of the Adani coal mine.

In southeast Queensland, oppose led 43-38, while support led in the rest of Queensland by 45-37.

On state voting intentions, Labor led by 52-48, a one-point gain for Labor since the November election. Primary votes were 37% Labor (up two), 36% LNP (up two), 10% Greens (steady) and 10% One Nation (down four).

One Nation’s drop is worse than it looks, as it only contested 61 of 93 seats at the election. However, this poll would have asked for statewide support.

44% approved of Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk (up three since early November), and 38% disapproved (down four), for a net approval of +6.

Opposition Leader Deb Frecklington had initial ratings of 29% approve, 25% disapprove.

Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

The Conversation